Thermal State and Fate of Permafrost in Russia: First Results of IPY

V.E. Romanovsky, A.L. Kholodov, S.S. Marchenko
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks
N.G. Oberman
MIRECO Mining Company, Syktivkar, Russia
D.S. Drozdov, G.V. Malkova, N.G. Moskalenko, A.A. Vasiliev
Institute of Earth Cryosphere, Tyumen, Russia
D.O. Sergeev
Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Moscow, Russia
M.N. Zheleznyak
Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Yakutsk, Russia

Abstract

To characterize the thermal state of permafrost, the International Permafrost Association launched its International Polar Year Project #50, Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP). Ground temperatures are measured in existing and new boreholes within the global permafrost domain over a fixed time period in order to develop a snapshot of permafrost temperatures in both time and space. This data set will serve as a baseline against which to measure changes of near-surface permafrost temperatures and permafrost boundaries, to validate climate model scenarios, and for temperature reanalysis. The first results of the project based on data obtained from Russia are presented. Most of the observatories show a substantial warming during the last 20 to 30 years. The magnitude of warming varied with location, but was typically from 0.5 to 2°C at the depth of zero annual amplitude. Thawing of Little Ice Age permafrost is ongoing at many locations. There are some indications that Late Holocene permafrost has begun to thaw at some undisturbed locations in northeastern Europe and in northwest Siberia. Projections of future changes in permafrost suggest that by the end of the 21st century, Late Holocene permafrost in Russia may be actively thawing at all locations and some Late Pleistocene permafrost could start to thaw as well.

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